By Douglas Ogari
Richard Nixon, the 37th U.S. President’s miscalculation costed him his political career ending up in premature resignation from the Office of the President in the year 1974 after fearing an impending impeachment by the U.S. House of representatives. Nixon, who had served as Vice President for eight years (1952 – 1960) under President Dwight Eisenhower contested for Presidency in 1960 and lost to John F Kennedy, contested for California Governorship in 1962 and lost to Pat Brown but had to wait for six more years before contesting for Presidency, he won but ended prematurely.
Richard Nixon erred with time & it costed him dearly ending his Presidency immaturely with a resignation in 1974. Just like Kenyan Deputy President Ruto, Nixon was a strong vice President who, after finishing his term, lost two elections in a row; Presidency and Governorship. Political analysts say had he shelved his 1960 ambitions & vied in 1964, he could have sailed through and become the longest serving US President. Nixon’s fate is similar to Ruto’s whose scandalous political life can be equated to Nixon’s attempt to cover up illegal activities by his administration during the 1974 Watergate scandal. The situation is not different either, William Ruto should shelve his 2022 Presidential ambitions and vie in 2032.
Now, let me tell you something.
William Ruto’s 2022 candidacy stands on the way for President Uhuru Kenyatta who ascended to the presidency at a relatively youthful age compared to his three predecessors. Uhuru took office with more energy and greater potential to cause positive change but on the way, cartels clipped the wings and retarded his leadership hence majority of Kenyans feel he needs more time to break free from the yoke of sub-optimal economic performance and the social evils that have perpetually punctuated our existence. As things stand, it’s the 2018 handshake with Raila Odinga that has transformed our potential into tangible reality. All that Kenya needs is for it to become great with a clear vision and capability to rally the population in to the journey of destiny – elevating the country in to first world economic status, this can be done by turning another new leaf in 2022.
Ruto’s candidacy alone risks the country’s national peace and stability. Its Ruto’s aggressiveness that culminated into 2007/08 elections by his initial refusal to accept the ‘Nusu Mkate’ deal that had been negotiated by Ghananian diplomat & UN boss Koffi Annan and former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa. Going by the utterances by Ruto’s key allies like Bonny Khalwale, Kimani Ichungwa, Kimani Ngunchiri, Alice Wahome, Moses Kuria, Oscar Sudi and Ndindi Nyoro, one would mistaken them for preparing for war in a year or so. Ruto’s candidacy needs more time when the country is more stabilized on matters peace and cohesion. His presence in the 2022 Presidential ballot will trigger violence as Kenyans may want to revenge for the plundering of public resources he has overseen since his entrance into government; let him give it a stab in 2032
Another reality that technically dismisses William Ruto from the 2022 race is lack of strong regional kingpins that would earn him second position, leave alone second to none. Ruto needs more time to create strong regional kingpins after departure of key allies from his camp after the Uhuru-Raila truce. For instance, Ruto has no County kingpin in Nyanza because all Governors and Senators are against his bid and firmly behind the Uhuru-Raila bromance; James Ongwae of Kisii, Okoth Obado, John Nyagarama, Prof. Anyang Nyong’o of Migori, Nyamira and Kisumu respectively, Cornerly Rasanga of Siaya & Cyprian Awiti too are against Ruto’s 2022 imaginative candidacy. Concincidentally, all Nyanza senators led by Kisii Senator Prof. Sam Ongeri and his Siaya counterpart James Orengo have thrown cold water on Ruto’s ambitions. If Ruto had Ali Hassan Joho for Coast or Wickliffe Oparanya for Western Kingpin, Waiguru for Central Kingpin and Ledama for Massai Kingpinship, it would have been a head start for him. We have seen Ruto being welcomed to a County by a Member of County Assembly as Constituency and county leaders keep off his several tours and the public heckle him; an empty king? It would therefore be completely politically incorrect for Dr. Ruto to have Members of Parliament as regional kingpins, this cant work because it’s politically illogical & technically fallacious.
Forget about the frenemies hanging on his coat for supper, Ruto should seek political friendship with enemies he has created since 2002. Unlike Raila Odinga, Ruto doesnt forgive. Raila Odinga’s big heart has made him a seasoned politician and has survived all kinds of waves to become who he is, the enigma of Kenyan politics. But Dr. Ruto has found it hard to forgive his enemies, something that has made his political inroads a hard nut to crack, only remaining with few youths to sell the ‘hustler narrative’ around and online keyboard warriors who have mastered the art of ghost accounts and fake perception. Ruto should learn from Odinga and widen his scope of political operation, accept back his political opponents while maintaining loyalists; he should therefore learn to differentiate between foot soldiers and food soldiers
Ruto should therefore recollect his past mistakes, build his crumbling financial base and make a come back after ten years probably in 2032. But I know being hard headed as he is, he will give 2022 a stab and fall pants down. Ruto will be buried political by the strong winds of Uhuru-Raila bromance maybe become a distant third after Musalia Mudavadi. Ruto must study and understand the current political & government waves including his current powerless redundant stature after elevation of Interior CS Dr. Fred Matiang’i through Executive Order Number 1 of 2019. It’s over for William Ruto in 2022; he is cornered and the best he can try is in 2032 if he reinvents himself & reviews his strategies. But unfortunately, career conmen and political lowlifes around Ruto who are busy selling him false prophesy for fear of losing handout privileges will ensure he vies and bites the dust.